To be honest, who has any real knowledge about a players’ ability when it reaches the 3rd round of a rookie draft? If I asked you if Marcus Stevenson was worth a 5th round dynasty selection this year, what argument would you use to support your case? Well, firstly, he isn’t a real player…and that’s the point. By the time these later picks roll around, most of these guys are unknown commodities that have about as good of a chance as you or I to make the 53 man roster. Despite this, I still think there are a few players being overlooked in rookie drafts, falling to the third round or later, even though they have an actual chance to break into the starting lineup and solidifying a role in their new offense.
The first 1.5-2 rounds of your rookie draft should be filled exclusively with players drafted within the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. There’s plenty of data to show that the most predictive statistic when it comes to predicting both real and fantasy success for a college prospect is NFL draft capital. You may think that Player X is three times as talented as Player Y. But come draft time, Player X gets drafted in Round 6; Player Y in Round 3. Small piece of advice if you find yourself in this situation: fade yourself.